The International Energy Agency (IEA) stated in its monthly report released Friday that global oil supplies may be tighter than they appear, despite a projected surplus in the balance between supply and demand. The agency cited increased refinery activity to meet rising demand for travel and electricity during the summer as a key factor behind this apparent tightness.

The IEA, which advises industrialized nations, said it now expects global crude supply to grow by 2.1 million barrels per day in 2025 — an upward revision of 300,000 barrels from previous estimates. Meanwhile, global oil demand is forecast to rise by only 700,000 barrels per day, indicating a significant surplus on paper.

Nevertheless, the agency emphasized that heightened seasonal refining rates are putting pressure on available supply, potentially tightening the market in reality, particularly as summer demand surges.